This text is a part of HuffPost’s biweekly politics e-newsletter. Click on right here to subscribe.
When President Donald Trump met with Syria’s interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, the encounter went past the “hello” the White Home had advised reporters to count on.
Trump and Sharaa spoke behind closed doorways for greater than half-hour in a dialogue that included Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who was internet hosting Trump on the time, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Afterward, the crown prince, Trump and Sharaa posed for footage that gave the assembly a way of historical past and legitimacy, smiling broadly collectively. It was a putting picture, on condition that no American president had met a Syrian chief in 25 years, and much more so as a result of Sharaa, a former Al Qaeda militant, remains to be designated as a terrorist by the U.S. authorities.
The assembly represented essentially the most dramatic second to date in Trump’s ongoing go to to the Center East, which took him to Qatar in a while Wednesday and can conclude within the United Arab Emirates.
Bandar Aljaloud/Saudi Royal Palace by way of AP
The encounter was the icing on the cake for supporters of deeper U.S. engagement with Syria below Sharaa’s rule who argue that U.S. coverage is vital to rebuilding the nation because it emerges from a 14-year civil struggle. The reevaluation of the connection between the 2 international locations started in December after brutal former dictator Bashar Assad was overthrown and Sharaa turned the nation’s new chief.
Main American allies within the Center East have been pushing Washington to elevate U.S. sanctions masking Syria which have made it laborious for them to ship assist and courtroom enterprise there. The group contains Qatar — which can also be working to offer the president a $400 million jet, a proposed present that has change into a serious scandal in the US.
On Tuesday, Trump introduced he would stop sanctions to offer Syria “a chance at greatness,” a win for the lobbying marketing campaign. “There is a new government that will hopefully succeed in stabilizing the country and keeping peace,” he mentioned.
However the U.S.’s closest conventional companion within the area — Israel — had opposed the concept. And a few hard-line nationwide safety figures within the Trump administration have sought to sluggish U.S. engagement with Sharaa.
Many international coverage watchers are actually questioning if Trump’s Syria shift reveals Israel (and a few of its hawkish allies in Washington) meaningfully shedding affect, significantly because the president embraces Arab leaders with whom he has ties on each public coverage and personal enterprise.
Trump himself suggests he represents a constructive break with the previous — utilizing his speech in Riyadh to decry “interventionists” — and several other regional and U.S. officers have advised HuffPost they see the administration as extra balanced than previous counterparts.
Nonetheless, the small print of the Syria maneuver — and what sources count on subsequent — supply a extra advanced image of the present push-pull between coverage circles, together with inside the Trump administration.
Presidential Consideration – And Its Fickleness
To Mouaz Moustafa, a Syrian-American activist concerned in coverage discussions, this week’s shift had a transparent impetus.
“President Trump had never been able to look at Syria… [and] what’s best for U.S. interests,” as different considerations have dominated his presidency to date, Moustafa advised HuffPost.
In Saudi Arabia, Trump had the time to take action, he argued, including: “I’ve been advocating for a meeting between Sharaa and Trump… I knew if they met for 10 minutes, they were going to love each other as strong leaders, and that’s exactly what’s happened.”
Trump praised Sharaa as “a young, attractive guy… with a strong past” following the encounter.
The transfer displays the president’s willingness to take large swings, even when that conflicts with Israel, a U.S. official engaged on Center East coverage argued to HuffPost.
“Israel’s goal in Syria is to keep it a failed state that they can bomb forever… sanctions assured that would happen,” mentioned the official, who requested to stay nameless as a result of they weren’t approved to talk to the press. “The entire region, Europe and the world will be better off with a stable rebuilding of Syria… Nobody has ever been as bold as to say all [sanctions] are coming off like Trump just did.”
In vital methods, the Trump administration continues to be intently aligned with Israel. Echoing the Biden period, Washington has but to problem Israeli troops’ deepening presence in different international locations within the area — together with in Syria — or to meaningfully push Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to restrict his devastating ongoing offensive within the Gaza Strip, which is enabled by U.S. weapons. Trump additionally continued to acknowledge Israeli management of a part of Syria, in violation of worldwide legislation.
Nevertheless, Washington seems unconvinced by Israeli officers’ arguments that entrenching Sharaa’s rule dangers militancy in a neighboring state and the persecution of the Druze, a minority group that additionally has a big presence in Israel.
These implementing the shift in U.S. coverage towards Syria nonetheless embrace Trump aides leery of serious outreach to Sharaa, like Tulsi Gabbard, the director of nationwide intelligence, Sebastian Gorka, the counter-terror director on the White Home Nationwide Safety Council, and Joel Rayburn, Trump’s nominee for the chief Center East job on the State Division. Some contained in the administration have been reportedly stunned by Trump’s transfer yesterday.
Gorka, identified for fear-mongering about Islam, final month advised Breitbart “the jury is still out” on the Syrian chief, noting that Sharaa had spoken of implementing Islamic legislation in Syria. He contrasted him with Assad by calling the previous dictator “secular,” an outline that’s contested however was usually utilized by advocates for U.S. engagement with Assad, together with Gabbard.
Moustafa expressed confidence that Trump’s desire would overrule inside skepticism. “The president rewards loyalty, and anyone who’s hindering his agenda usually gets moved out of the way,” he mentioned.
“Look at [Mike] Waltz, for example,” he continued.
Trump transferred Waltz, his hawkish former nationwide safety adviser, to a unique place final month.
Moustafa, whose Syria Emergency Activity Power suggested Congress on American sanctions on Syria over the Assad regime’s human rights abuses, mentioned the U.S. ought to now “help Syria become the democracy it deserves to be” by transferring shortly to finish sanctions and permit Syria’s central financial institution to operate.
“I don’t know if it is a signpost for restraint ascendancy in the administration or if it’s because the Saudis say, ‘We’re going to buy billions in weapons.’”
– Gil Barndollar, nonresident fellow at Protection Priorities
The manager department has vital leeway in making use of — or waiving — sanctions, however Capitol Hill performs a big position, too.
Lawmakers have “eyes wide open on Sharaa” and wish to “strike the right balance between opportunity and risk,” a Republican congressional aide advised HuffPost, requesting anonymity to explain inside deliberations.
Prime Republican and Democratic senators endorsed some sanctions reduction on Syria final month, and even hawkish commentators have praised Trump’s step. However the aide famous that skepticism over Sharaa persists — as does a willingness to push the U.S. to reapply stress on Damascus by way of sanctions.
“If, at the end of the day, they fail to move on our national security interests or fall victim to their own worst impulses, we can slam the door again,” the aide advised HuffPost.
Critics of Sharaa fear about doable authoritarianism and concentrating on of those that don’t ascribe to his conservative ideology.
Notably, the GOP aide framed skeptics on Trump’s group as persevering with to wield affect over the decision-making on Damascus. “There are always competing views. It’s very clear where the administration landed,” the aide mentioned. “I do not think that means these other voices were lost — I think they informed that decision.”
Dynamics Below A ‘Personalist’ Regime
Israel’s ongoing uneasiness towards Sharaa will seemingly proceed to have an effect on U.S. coverage, however observers doubt it is going to be a serious hurdle to engagement with Syria.
“The Israelis view the government in Damascus with an exceptionally heavy dose of skepticism,” the GOP aide mentioned. However that’s not essentially the most important precedence in Trump’s Washington.
In a mirrored image of the broader “America First” temper, the aide highlighted Russian navy amenities in Syria. “While I get it that is a security crisis for Israel, the United States has some larger issues if we’re talking about the port of Tartus, the airfield in Latakia … the United States also has national security interests,” the aide mentioned.
Moustafa framed rebuilding Syria as useful for regional safety broadly and therefore a profit for Israel, too. He argued that Netanyahu would solely search to complicate it for private causes and mentioned that hawks in Washington who nonetheless again sanctions appear targeted on serving to Netanyahu retain energy by way of “perpetual war.”
Whereas backers of a extra modest U.S. method within the Center East could also be happy with the developments on Syria, there’s little assure the pondering on that subject will lengthen to broader coverage — significantly given proof that even when Trump’s transfer displeased Israel, it happy different regional gamers who need the U.S. deeply concerned within the area.
Trump, described as a “president of peace” by Vice President JD Vance, has used his ongoing Center East journey to advance main weapons gross sales to Arab international locations and Turkey, which have deployed them in regional wars for years.
“I don’t know if it is a signpost for restraint ascendancy in the administration or if it’s because the Saudis say, ’We’re going to buy billions in weapons,” mentioned Gil Barndollar, a nonresident fellow on the group Protection Priorities, which advocates for a much less hawkish U.S. international coverage and has seen some personnel appointed to Trump administration jobs. “I’m happy to see us take a victory lap on that, sure, but the actual reasoning behind it may be more typical Trumpian transactionalism.”
To trace whether or not figures within the administration who determine as pro-restraint are wielding actual energy, “the bigger problems are China and Russia, which are much more meaningful than anything going on in the Middle East,” mentioned Barndollar, who can also be a researcher on the Catholic College of America.
Calling the Trump administration a “personalist regime,” he famous even self-described opponents of hawkishness appear primarily involved with their additional political elevation and seem prepared to evolve their positions primarily based on the president’s preferences.
Nonetheless, the difficulty to trace within the area to measure the affect of hawks versus relative doves in Trump’s circle is the continued diplomacy over a doable nuclear cope with Iran, and whether or not Washington is prepared to “not just anger Netanyahu but… face pushback from certain Israeli front groups over here.”
“The current Israeli government is clearly very eager to launch a military campaign against Iran,” continued Barndollar, who lately returned from a go to to Israel.
He drew a hyperlink between that risk and the affect of the rich Persian Gulf kingdoms that, lately, have change into extra keen about diplomacy with Tehran. “Those people have Trump’s ear; they’re openly bribing him,” Barndollar mentioned.
“Are they more important to him than the Israeli government and its lobbyists?” he continued. “You could at least make a case.”
