The Biden administration warned Russia Thursday that Moscow risks seeing more U.S. and allied troops and arms closer to Russian borders if President Vladimir Putin goes ahead with an invasion of neighboring Ukraine.

A senior administration official who briefed reporters on the unfolding crisis in eastern Europe Thursday called the build-up of Russian military forces in recent months near Ukraine’s border “alarming.”

However, the latest intelligence assessment still indicates a decision to go to war against Kyiv in support of pro-Russian Ukrainian forces has not been made yet by the Kremlin. “Our sense is they have not made a decision yet,” the senior official said.

“It’s clear to us that if Russia goes ahead with what may be underway, we and our allies are prepared to impose severe costs that would damage Russia’s economy and bring about exactly what it says it does not want: more NATO capabilities — not less — closer to Russia, not further away,” the senior official said.

Both Washington and Moscow this week have talked of direct negotiations early next month to address the crisis and a list of security “guarantees” Mr. Putin is demanding the U.S. and NATO agree to. U.S. officials said Thursday they were ready for talks provided the negotiations are sincere, reciprocal, and will not involve undermining the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine.

No date for talks has been set, which could be held through a forum called the Strategic Stability Dialogue.

Top Biden officials have said there are some Russian demands the U.S. and its allies would be willing to discuss, but others will “never be agreed to,” the senior official said. Negotiations will not be held in public, the official added.

“We are continuing to monitor Russia’s alarming movement of forces and deployments along the border with Ukraine,” the senior official said.

A small step toward de-escalating tensions was a recent agreement by the governments of both Russia and Ukraine to recommit to a July 2020 cease-fire, the senior official said. The separatist war, backed by Russian arms, has taken some 14,000 lives in eastern Ukraine since breaking out in 2014 — the same year Mr. Putin engineered the annexation of the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine.

Mr. Putin, in his traditional year-end marathon press conference, again painted Russia as the aggrieved party in the face of what he said was a relentless NATO expansion eastward, and issued a demand that Western governments provide security guarantees “immediately” against future incursions. One demand that Mr. Biden and NATO officials have rejected out of hand was a promise that front-line states such as Ukraine and Georgia would never be offered full NATO membership.

Moscow earlier this month issued a draft treaty listing its demands for what is mainly a restructuring of NATO and European security policies.

“You should give us guarantees … and without any delay! Now!” Mr. Putin said.

The Russian leader repeated earlier assertions that U.S. missiles in Europe posed a threat, an apparent reference to Aegis Ashore missile defense interceptors in Poland and Romania

“Were we the ones who placed missiles next to the U.S. borders?” Mr. Putin said, responding to a reporter’s question. “No. It is the U.S. with its missiles who came to our home and are on the threshold of our home. … Is it an unusual demand? Do not place any more assault systems next to our home? What is unusual about it?”

Watching warily

U.S. intelligence agencies are closely monitoring Russia military moves. Many believe Mr. Putin is seeking some move by the West to justify an incursion into Ukraine. Recent troubling signals, U.S. analysts say, include the escalating Russian demands, Mr. Putin’s meetings with national security and defense officials, and a phone call between Mr. Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping last week.

Exploiting another pressure point, Moscow this week also reduced the flow of natural gas to Europe through the Yamal-European pipeline to 5% capacity, the lowest level in 2021.

Russian control over energy resources for Europe is a significant consideration for the United States and allies, the senior official said.

The United States and NATO say they are prepared to act both militarily and through the imposition of stiff economic sanctions on Russian financial and commercial interests if the invasion takes place.

“Our actions will not just be limited to economic actions,” the senior official said, noting likely stepped up provision of weapons to Kyiv and changes in force postures. “We’re preparing for any contingency on the assumption that this could happen.”

Asked about Mr. Putin’s reference to U.S. missiles on Russia’s doorstep, the senior official said: “That’s a better question to pose to the Kremlin.”

“I could very easily go through a litany of provocative Russian deployment of troops, of offensive systems on the border of NATO-allied countries. I don’t think it is productive to get into that sort of tit-for-tat.”

Moscow also has been engaged in aggressive disinformation operations seeking to inaccurately portray Ukraine as being at fault for the crisis and for spurning a diplomatic process seeking a political compromise in the separatist war..

“We have seen stepped-up efforts by the Russian government to do what it has often done in advance of these sorts of incursions in the past, which is increase disinformation, try to drive a narrative publicly that it is Ukraine that is escalating, as opposed to Russia,” the senior official said.

“To be clear, we see no evidence of that on the Ukrainian side.”

American allies and partners have been told that “this is Russian disinformation,” the senior official noted.

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia – It sounded like a breakthrough in what has become Africa’s scariest and most destabilizing war: Rebelling Tigrayan forces this week opened the door to a peace agreement, offering to withdraw from lands outside of their province and begin talks with the government. 

Debretsion Gebremichael, who heads the regional Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) fiercely battling the central government and its allies, sent a letter to United Nations officials this week calling the withdrawal “a decisive opening act for peace.” The rebel leader said he hoped the move would end hostilities and jump-start peace negotiations.

But there are many here — in the capital of Addis Ababa and in Tigray itself — who don’t believe things can return to normal so easily. 

In fact, many are pessimistic that Ethiopia‘s diverse tribes can ever live in harmony, especially after the brutality of this conflict which has killed thousands, displaced millions, produced severe food shortages and led the U.N. to pledge to investigate crimes against humanity committed by both sides.

Some say the divisions between the Tigrayan leaders — who had until recently grown accustomed to being the clear first among equals in the country’s tribal power ranking — and the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, an Oromo whose early reform and security moves after taking power in 2018 won him a Nobel Peace Prize, are too deep to heal quickly.  

“The government does not want to see any Tigrayans,” said Kehase Aregawi, 35, who is a Tigrayan, the ethnic group based in northern Ethiopia. 

“They want to finish us,” he added, while serving tea and freshly cooked rice to his customers at his hotel in this sprawling capital. “We are dying. There might be no Tigrayans remaining if the conflict continues the way it is.”

Last November, fighting broke out in this Horn of Africa country between government troops and Tigrayan forces after Mr. Abiy launched a military offensive against the region: He blamed the TPLF for staging an attack on a military camp in the region.

And three were deeper strains: Tigray has long resisted the federal government’s power, even holding regional elections in August 2020 after the government had postponed them because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

After eight months of intense fighting, Mr. Abiy‘s government declared a unilateral cease-fire and pulled forces from Mekelle, the capital city of the Tigray region. Tigray forces advanced and captured several towns, including Dessie and Kombolcha near Addis Ababa, raising fears that the rebel forces may soon move on the capital itself.

But Mr. Abiy, a former lieutenant colonel in the military, then rallied government forces, announcing recently that his troops had recaptured Dessie and Kombolcha. Despite the Nobel peace prize on his resume, the prime minister appears committed to a harsh policy to teach his adversaries a lesson on the battlefield.

“The struggle isn’t yet finished,” Mr. Abiy said. “We should offer a long-lasting solution to make sure the enemy that has tested us doesn’t become a danger to Ethiopia again.”

His supporters say they won’t rest until the rebels are defeated and Tigrayans are broken of the illusion that they should by right control the country’s key levers of power.

“Tigrayans have not accepted that anyone else can lead this country,” said Muktar Mohammed, a resident of Addis Ababa, who is also an Abiy supporter. “They are angry, and they want to retake power through the back door. They killed everyone and destroyed our country’s economy when they were in power.”

“We will not allow them to ascend to power,” he added “We will defeat them. They are our enemy number one.”

Deep-seated hostility

Analysts say such deep-seated sentiments on both sides could lead to a protracted civil war, threatening the future of Ethiopia, in spite of a cease-fire.

Thousands of civilians have already been killed in 13 months of fighting, and international aid groups estimate that about 400,000 Tigrayan residents face famine conditions and more than twice that number need food and other aid across the country’s north.

And if Africa’s second-most populous country is consumed by war, the instability is likely to be felt far beyond Ethiopia’s landlocked borders. A new U.N. estimate out Thursday projected that an estimated 22 million Ethiopians will require humanitarian assistance in the coming year.

“Ethiopia could be destabilized,” said Macharia Munene, history and international relations professor at the United States International University-Africa in Nairobi. “The residents of Ethiopia are suffering a lot, and it’s going to be chaotic in [the] future if the war continues. The nation is underdeveloped, and people are facing hunger and starvation.”

“In the worst-case scenario, the rebel forces capture Addis Ababa — then there would be no country,” he added. 

Fears have been escalating over the conflict destabilizing the region, especially as hundreds of thousands of refugees have crossed borders into unstable Sudan and also Kenya. Eritrea has already been drawn in, helping the government militarily against the TPLF.

Mr. Munene said Sudan, with its recent military coup, fragile transition to democracy and economic crisis, is in no position to handle the influx. He worries about larger numbers leaving Ethiopia. 

Meanwhile, analysts are split over a solution to the conflict. Mr. Munene believes a national dialogue is the path forward, saying that Mr. Abiy needs to reach out to rebel forces and allow for frank talks on how to address the causes.

“Military action cannot solve the Ethiopian crisis because the strategy has failed before,” he said, urging the UN and other key partners to put pressure on Ethiopia for a cease-fire to allow for negotiations. “Abiy‘s bid to use the military to centralize power in Addis Ababa and destroy the country’s multi-ethnic federation has failed and is proving disastrous for the country.”

However, Adan Getachew, a security analyst in Addis Ababa, disagreed. For a peaceful solution to be achieved, he said, rebel forces will have to be defeated by the government to save the country from collapsing.

“It’s a risky situation because there must be a winner in this war,” he said, adding that the rebels’ intention is to return to power by any means necessary. 

“Dialogue cannot work in this situation because everyone needs power,” he added. “It’s either the government troops who win the war and save the country or lose it to rebel forces, and we become like Somalia and Afghanistan.”

Tigray’s Mr. Debretsion has asked the U.N. diplomats to “establish a mechanism to ensure the immediate and verifiable cessation of all forms of hostilities” and “the total withdrawal of all external forces” from Tigray, as well as the creation of a no-fly zone over the region excluding humanitarian and civilian aircraft. He has also requested an arms embargo on Ethiopia and Eritrea.

The Abiy government was dismissive of the rebels’ letter.

“I don’t even know if such an illegitimate entity can send such a letter to a United Nations body,” government spokeswoman Billene Seyoum told a news conference Tuesday in Addis Ababa, according to the Reuters news agency. The Ethiopian government considers the TPLF a terrorist organization.

Redwan Hussein, State Minister for Foreign Affairs, said in a social media post that the government is not seeking an all-out war reaching into every hamlet and village in the Tigray region, but added “it will make sure that the TPLF will not be able to wage an attack anymore.”

The International Crisis Group, a think tank, in a statement on the conflict Thursday, said Mr. Abiy will be under pressure from non-Tigrayan regions, especially Amhara, to keep up the military campaign but that both sides in the civil war should rush to seize the chance for a deal

“Ethiopia has paid a catastrophic price in the course of this hard-fought war. Moreover, there may still be further battlefield twists,” the ICG statement warned.

“Tigray’s forces command enormous support at home and will seek to resurge unless negotiations get under way. Peace talks could help set Ethiopia on the path to reconstruction and avoid a metastasising conflict that would further destabilize the Horn of Africa’s key state.”

Meanwhile, both Tigrayans and non-Tigrayans say the conflict has only exacerbated ethnic tensions on the ground, especially in Addis Ababa, where both sides had lived peacefully for years.

“This is no longer our country – all Tigrayans have been labeled as terrorists,” said Bisrat Kibret, a Tigrayan woman and mother of two living in Addis Ababa. “The police and army are raiding homes, community places, and workplaces looking for Tigrayans. Many have been killed, tortured and detained for falsely being accused of supporting rebel forces.”

Mr. Aregawi says the international community must intervene.

“Our country needs help right now,” he said. “We are worried about our country.”

NAIROBI, Kenya — Ethiopia’s government has announced that its forces will not advance deeper into the Tigray region.

Ethiopian forces have been ordered to maintain the areas they have won back from the Tigray People’s Liberation Force, but not to go further into the Tigray region, the Government Communication Service head, Legesse Tulu, said Thursday.

The Ethiopian federal army and its allies have made strong advances in recent weeks, recapturing major towns and cities in the neighboring Amhara and Afar regions that Tigray fighters had seized earlier this year. The Tigray forces have been forced to retreat back to their home region.

“The first phase operation to expel the terrorist group from the areas it invaded has ended with victory. At this moment the enemy’s desire and ability (to engage in war) is severely destroyed,” said Legesse.

“The government will take further steps to make sure that (the Tigray forces) desire won’t arise again in the future. For now, Ethiopian forces are ordered to maintain the areas it has controlled,” he said.

The government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s announcement that its soldiers will not pursue the Tigray forces into their home region could be an opening that encourages a cease-fire and negotiations to resolve the conflict.

Earlier this week the leader of the Tigray forces said its fighters have been ordered to withdraw back to Tigray.

“I have ordered those units of the Tigray Army that are outside the borders of Tigray to withdraw to the borders of Tigray within immediate effect,” Debretsion Gebremichael said in a letter to U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Debretsion proposed an immediate cease-fire to be followed by negotiations.

He also proposed the establishment of a no-fly zone over Tigray to prevent air attacks over the region and the imposition of an international arms embargo on Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Tens of thousands of people have been killed in the Tigray conflict that erupted in November 2020 between Ethiopian forces and fighters from the country’s Tigray region, who dominated the national government before Abiy became prime minister in 2018.

As a result of a months-long government blockade, some of Tigray’s 6 million people have begun starving to death, according to aid groups. Thousands of ethnic Tigrayans have been detained or forcibly expelled in an atmosphere stoked by virulent speeches against Tigrayans by some senior Ethiopian officials. Alarmed human rights groups have warned some of the anti-Tigrayan rhetoric is hate speech.

Last month, the Ethiopian government declared a state of emergency as Tigray fighters moved closer to the capital, Addis Ababa, and carried out a number of abuses against ethnic Amhara, according to accounts by local residents. The Tigray forces say they are fighting to lift the blockade on their people.

The Ethiopian government’s military appears to have been strengthened by aerial drones purchased from China, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, said William Davison of the International Crisis Group.

“Tigray forces appear to be in a weakened position after giving up all the areas they controlled,” he said.