The primary main candidate to announce a run for the Democratic nomination for Florida governor is a former Republican member of Congress who may probably roll via the first with out a severe problem.
David Jolly, who served three years within the Home representing a Tampa Bay district and is probably going finest recognized now as an MSNBC contributor, on Thursday introduced his bid to turn into the primary Democrat in Tallahassee’s governor’s mansion since Buddy MacKay held the job for 3 weeks ending out the time period of Lawton Chiles, who died in late 1998.
“Something is happening in Florida,” Jolly instructed HuffPost, describing the town-hall model conferences he has held across the state, together with in solidly Republican areas, over the previous a number of months. “We’ve got a shot in this governor’s race.”
MacKay, who had been Chiles’ lieutenant governor, misplaced to Republican Jeb Bush in November 1998, and a Republican has held Florida’s governorship ever since.
Sylvain Gaboury through Getty Pictures
The closest Democrats have come to profitable over that stretch was 2018, when Tallahassee mayor Andrew Gillum got here inside 32,000 votes of defeating then-congressman Ron DeSantis. DeSantis received reelection, nonetheless, by 19 factors over Charlie Crist, one other Republican-turned-Democrat.
Jolly mentioned he and Crist got here to the Democratic Occasion fairly in another way. Whereas Crist has mentioned that the Republican Occasion left him by transferring away from his values, Jolly mentioned he through the years modified his views on points starting from gun management to abortion. He left the Republican Occasion in 2018, after its takeover by President Donald Trump, however was an impartial for seven years earlier than formally registering as a Democrat in late April.
“I test the theory in politics: Is it OK to change your mind?” he mentioned. “I think I reflect where a lot of voters are.”
Nikki Fried, the chair of the Florida Democratic Occasion and the final Democrat to serve on the elected Cupboard as agriculture commissioner, mentioned that it was conceivable that no well-known Democrat will enter the race between now and the qualifying deadline subsequent yr.
Whether or not that occurs or not, although, Jolly has his work lower out for him to steer hardcore Democrats in Florida that he really is one in all them. “He will need validators from the progressive community…. There is some skepticism in the Black community,” mentioned Fried, who herself ran for governor in 2022 however misplaced the first to Crist.
She added, although, that Jolly has impressed her to date along with his willingness to go in every single place and to speak to everybody. “He is showing up,” she mentioned.
Crist held two elected statewide positions earlier than operating for governor as a Republican in 2006. He determined to run for U.S. Senate in 2010, however was on track to dropping that main to Marco Rubio, main him to go away the GOP and run as an impartial. Rubio ended up profitable the Senate seat and Crist two years later grew to become a Democrat.
He ran for governor once more in 2014 in opposition to then-incumbent Rick Scott and got here inside 1 share level of profitable. From there, he ran for Congress in opposition to Jolly in 2016, beating him and serving three phrases earlier than leaving to run for governor once more in 2022 in opposition to DeSantis, getting crushed this time.
Fried mentioned Jolly most likely has a greater likelihood at profitable than Crist did, significantly if the temper of the citizens is much like what it was in 2018, when Trump had energized Democrats in every single place together with Florida. “People are willing to give him a shot,” she mentioned of Jolly.
Florida is a tricky and costly place to run for statewide workplace, with 11 totally different tv markets throughout a thousand miles and two time zones. To win, Jolly or any Democrat would wish tens of tens of millions of {dollars} or extra to compete, at a time when many donors could also be skeptical of a state that DeSantis received in a landslide in 2022 and Trump received simply in 2024.
Florida’s time period limits disallow one other 4 years for DeSantis, though his spouse, Casey, is contemplating a run whereas GOP Home member and outspoken Trump ally Byron Donalds introduced his candidacy in February.
Jolly, although, mentioned that Democrats nationally perceive the significance of Florida within the elections to return on condition that the 2030 Census will seemingly give Florida and Texas 4 extra Home districts between them and thus a near-lock on the Electoral School except Democrats can put not less than one in all them in play.
“If we win the governor’s race in ’26, the road to the White House runs through Florida in 2028,” he mentioned.
Republicans, even anti-Trump ones who would like to see Jolly win, say that could be a sizeable “if.”
“I think his only path even to the Democratic nomination is a large and steady influx of soft money and outside support,” mentioned one Republican advisor who spoke on situation of anonymity. “He will need to catch lightning in a bottle to get the small-donor national network engaged to help him, and they won’t be as likely to give to a very recent Democrat.”
Mac Stipanovich, a decadeslong Republican who left the get together after Trump’s rise, agreed that Jolly faces a steep hill. “The fundamentals, and, therefore, the odds, are against him. He will need to run a well-funded, nearly error-free campaign and be lucky to boot, catching some breaks beyond his control,” he mentioned.
