Gov. Maura Healey is getting into the 2026 election cycle in an “extremely vulnerable position” after going through challenges in immigration, affordability, power, transportation, and housing, in response to an inside ballot paid for by Republican gubernatorial candidate Mike Kennealy.
The survey of greater than 800 doubtless Massachusetts voters performed between Feb. 11-12 by Opinion Diagnostics discovered Healey had a forty five% approval score however confronted extra vital opinions from voters when questions centered on housing, taxes, migrants, and the economic system.
In a memo accompanying the ballot, Brian Wynne, the pinnacle of Opinion Diagnostics and former marketing campaign supervisor for Gov. Charlie Baker, stated Healey has a flat favorability and flat job approval in addition to “net disapproval” of her dealing with of key points like immigration and housing.
“A plurality of voters believe that Healey’s job performance warrants a change in governor,” Wynne stated, in response to a replica of the ballot obtained by the Herald. “While they are open to replacing the chief executive of the commonwealth, voters will not accept just any alternative.”
A marketing campaign spokesperson for Healey declined to remark Wednesday.
The ballot discovered that Kennealy, who launched his marketing campaign in opposition to Healey earlier this month, has a greater likelihood at beating the first-term Democrat from Arlington than potential Republican challenger Brian Shortsleeve, a enterprise capitalist and the previous chief administrator of the MBTA.
Pollsters offered respondents transient biographies of Kennealy and Shortsleeve in addition to “information likely to be utilized in negative advertising by Healey and her allies,” in response to the memo.
Kennealy earned 68% of assist from voters when knowledgeable about his time working for the distressed Lawrence Public Faculties and one other 61% from voters who had been informed about his work serving to “restart the Massachusetts economy in the wake of COVID-19,” in response to the ballot.
The previous housing and financial improvement secretary below Baker was a key determine within the former governor’s controversial plan to reopen Massachusetts in phases. The tiered reopening plan got here after the Baker administration shut down the state’s economic system in the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“When the poll assessed a hypothetical matchup between Maura Healey and Mike Kennealy, she narrowly led 37.5% to 35.9%. This 1.6% margin is a statistical tie well within the survey’s margin of error. Among the 27% of voters who are undecided, a plurality believe Healey does not deserve re-election,” the memo accompanying the ballot stated.
A separate February ballot of 700 Massachusetts residents performed by the College of Massachusetts Amherst discovered Healey had a 52% general approval score.
The identical survey confirmed that solely 15% of respondents would again Kennealy over Healey, and 12% would vote for Shortsleeve. However in every occasion, a big share of these polled stated they had been nonetheless not sure of who they’d assist within the 2026 gubernatorial election.
Any Republican difficult Healey within the basic election subsequent yr will face a sequence of hurdles, together with identify recognition, matching Healey’s capability to fundraise, and strolling a political tightrope with President Donald Trump within the White Home.
Healey has greater than $2.8 million in her marketing campaign account after elevating over $404,000 in March, in response to state information. Kennealy pledged to seed his marketing campaign with $2 million from his private wealth.
The ballot performed by Opinion Diagnostics for Kennealy discovered that Shortsleeve would have a tricky time beating Healey based mostly on his “credentials, policy positions, and past political activity.”
Within the ballot memo, Wynne stated Shortsleeve’s time on the prime of the MBTA, a transit authority that has confronted myriad high-profile points, is “fatal” to his potential candidacy.
Shortsleeve additionally held a fundraiser for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential bid in Cotuit that helped the Republican elevate greater than $500,000.
Shortsleeve was appointed to DeSantis’ nationwide finance committee for his presidential marketing campaign months after the Florida governor authorized a six-week abortion ban within the state.
The ballot paid for by Kennealy asserts that 55% of doubtless Massachusetts voters are much less more likely to vote for Shortsleeve due to his work with DeSantis.
“The 15-second ad Healey would use to eviscerate Shortsleeve writes itself, and would be highly effective with the 39% plurality of undecided voters who are less likely to vote for a DeSantis supporter and the 54% of undecided voters who are more likely to vote for a pro-choice candidate,” the ballot memo from Opinion Diagnostics stated.
Holly Robichaud, a strategist working for Shortsleeve, stated Kennealy’s marketing campaign is “obviously experiencing a failure to launch. Robichaud also said Kennealy does not need a poll to “know that Republican voters will never nominate the cheerleader in chief for the MBTA Communities Act,” a controversial transist-oriented zoning legislation Kennealy helped implement.
Kennealy’s marketing campaign, Robichaud stated, is “desperately attacking someone who is not even in the race.”
“As a Marine, job creator and reformer who in record time stripped waste, fraud and abuse out of the MBTA and led it to its only balanced budget in decades, Brian Shortsleeve would be the ideal contrast to Maura Healey and her failed policies that have exploded the budget, made Massachusetts among the least affordable states in the nation, and delivered us a disastrous migrant crisis,” Robichaud stated. “The bottom line is you can’t defeat a Healey with a Kennealy.”
