On December 21, 2024, my good friend Dan Klein, an economics professor at George Mason College, despatched out an electronic mail to an inventory that I’m not on however cc:ed me, with the next supply:
Anybody wish to give me 8:1 odds that on Jan 21 Trump received’t have been inaugurated?
He linked to this submit on X. I didn’t even trouble clicking on the hyperlink as a result of these odds seemed good to me. We went backwards and forwards a couple of instances. I anxious about issues like intense storms that may sluggish it down by a day, and Dan was fairly gracious in making the deadline midnight on January 21.
So I provided $800 towards his $100 and he accepted. We each hoped that I’d win.
I did win, and Dan has already knowledgeable me that he has despatched the test. He gave me permission to submit on this.
Would I’ve provided 20:1 odds? No. Quite a few issues might have gone flawed. Trump might have been assassinated—he missed one try by turning his head. He might have been shot however not killed and laid up unconscious in mattress. Dan’s fear, which I now know by having clicked on the X file (pun meant), is that the Democrats would have discovered a option to sluggish it down. I assumed that to be extremely unlikely. Regardless of the motive for a delay, you possibly can most likely see why each Dan and I hoped I’d win.
By the best way, I’ve hardly ever had something good to say about Kamala Harris. However I assumed she confirmed great grace in overseeing the reporting of the electoral faculty votes on January 6.
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