Native Republicans have a problem this yr — what to do a few twice-impeached former president that’s searching for one other stint within the White Home whereas concurrently going through felony fees.
Speaking about Donald Trump is a double-edged sword.
Backing him may alienate the Democrats and Independents that conservatives have to win over in an effort to efficiently beat their opponents however rebuffing Trump would possibly anger the right-wing voters who make up a candidate’s base.
“Trump is a delicate dance for Republican candidates in Massachusetts. Biden will likely beat Trump in the range of two to one in the general election so tying yourself to Trump too much could become an anchor around the candidates’ neck,” mentioned Rob Grey, a veteran political strategist who labored on campaigns for former governors Charlie Baker and Mitt Romney.
An alternative choice?
Political insiders are advising candidates this cycle to disregard or keep away from speaking about Trump and as an alternative give attention to the hot-button points affecting Massachusetts just like the worth to accommodate migrants in a big community of state-funded accommodations and motels or the exorbitant value of housing.
Others are urging incumbents or wannabe pols to make this election cycle an early referendum on Gov. Maura Healey’s quick time in workplace, which has already been marked by numerous crises that stretch past the inflow of new-arrivals.
Holly Robichaud, a Republican strategist concerned in a number of campaigns this cycle, mentioned candidates have to “run on the issues not on coattails.” She pointed to Sen. Peter Durant’s victory final yr during which he made the Healey administration’s response to arriving migrants a middle level of his marketing campaign.
“This isn’t Indiana. This isn’t Florida. This isn’t South Carolina. For Republican candidates, they need to run on the issues so people know what they stand for and not hope for coattails,” she mentioned. “They need to make it a referendum on Maura Healey and they’ll win … Gov. Haley has been not engaged, not delivered on her promise to make Massachusetts more affordable.”
A spokesperson for Healey’s marketing campaign declined to remark and referred the Herald to the Massachusetts Democratic Celebration.
“Voters understand a vote for Republican candidates is a vote to bring Trumpism to Massachusetts, plain and simple,” MassDems Chair Steve Kerrigan mentioned in a press release to the Herald this week.
Even when a Republican needed to experience the coattails which might be anticipated to hold down from Trump’s perch atop November’s basic election ticket, analysts predict they won’t have a lot of an impact.
Costas Panagopoulos, the chair of Northeastern College’s Division of Political Science, mentioned if the magnitude of Trump’s down poll impact in 2016 is any indicator, then the influence this yr goes to be “very muted.”
“All of that depends on how the election ultimately plays out and how large the margin of victory is for whoever wins the election,” he mentioned in an interview. “When you have larger margins of victory, that tends to have more significant coattail effects. But the margins have been exceedingly small and shrinking in recent election cycles and I expect that to be true in 2024.”
If Republicans do resolve to tie their marketing campaign to Trump, specializing in the previous president’s immigration stances might be essentially the most useful, mentioned Thomas Whalen, an affiliate professor of social sciences at Boston College.
Whalen mentioned an inflow of migrants in Massachusetts and the price to accommodate them in shelters resonates “particularly among blue collar, kind of working class voters.”
“And especially in times where it’s kind of economically tight with inflation, they feel put upon ‘why are we sending our tax dollars to help these people?’ This is an issue that Trump has hammered home throughout the country and I think that issue is going to be a major one come this fall here in Massachusetts,” he mentioned.
The Trump tightrope for Massachusetts Republicans turns into a good more durable act to steadiness for native candidates working for federal workplace like John Deaton or Ian Cain, the 2 conservatives working to exchange U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
“It’s that much harder to avoid talking about Trump because you’re gonna be dealing with a federal issue set, and that’s hugely impacted by who wins the next presidential election,” mentioned Grey, who runs Grey Media Group. “The tap dance that local Republican candidates have to dance becomes a walk over hot coals for Republican congressional candidates.”
