Economists like to have a look at precise conduct as a means of inferring what folks consider. That is known as “revealed preference.” I’ve at all times discovered it to be a really useful gizmo.
Current statements by high Trump administration officers have puzzled observers on either side of the political spectrum. Right here’s the Nationwide Overview, a conservative publication that typically helps Trump, however differs together with his views on numerous necessary points:
However thus far in his second time period, concerning the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Trump has provided to Vladimir Putin that Ukraine is not going to retake all its annexed and occupied sovereign territory, that Ukraine is not going to be a part of NATO, that there will likely be no U.S. troops on Ukrainian soil after the battle, and that the U.S. will raise sanctions on Russia. And Trump would possibly even throw in a withdrawal of the additional 20,000 U.S. troops that Joe Biden despatched to NATO’s japanese flank after the invasion of Ukraine.
And in trade, Putin provided . . . properly, nothing, actually.
Critics have complained that this isn’t the type of conduct you’d count on from a politician that prides himself in being a talented dealmaker.
A number of days in the past, I urged that the critics had it mistaken. They had been working below the mistaken assumption that Ukraine was America’s ally and Russia was our enemy. In actual fact, Trump has lengthy been an admirer of Vladimir Putin and has ceaselessly been dismissive of the Ukrainian authorities. Quite than viewing these kinds of pre-negotiation concessions as “mistakes”, I seen them as ways to weaken Ukraine’s negotiating place. Put merely, Trump sees America as Russia’s buddy, allied towards Ukraine and the EU.
As we speak, Trump all however confirmed my declare:
Relating to the battle, President Donald Trump says to the Ukrainians, “You should have never started it!” Someplace in Moscow, Vladimir Putin should be grinning from ear to ear.
Consequently, the Nationwide Overview now shares my view:
Trump is flailing and thrashing round, making an attempt something to justify his present de facto pro-Russian stance.
PPS. Arduous to consider that this was simply three years in the past:
