Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his unbiased presidential marketing campaign and endorsed former President Donald Trump at a rally in Arizona on Friday. Trump gave him a dramatic welcome, full with pyrotechnics and the walk-on tune “My Hero.”
Democrats, who spent greater than a 12 months and hundreds of thousands of {dollars} arguing the presence of the conspiratorial scion of one of many American institution’s most distinguished households was a direct risk to their electoral hopes, at the moment are insisting the Trump marketing campaign’s tune received’t turn into prophetic.
However with Vice President Kamala Harris on the prime of the ticket and Kennedy’s numbers cratering with Democratic-leaning voters, it’s not clear their efforts received’t find yourself serving to Trump in an election more likely to come down to some thousand votes in only a handful of states.
On Monday, Kennedy instructed right-wing radio host Glenn Beck that his inside polling confirmed a big majority of his supporters would vote for Trump if he weren’t within the race. Kennedy dropped out with the intention to keep away from spoiling Trump’s bid in opposition to Harris, he instructed Beck.
“The likelihood was that my presence in the race would get Vice President Harris elected,” Kennedy stated.
Rebecca Noble/Getty Pictures
There may be proof in public nationwide polling to again up Kennedy’s claims. If pressured to decide on between Harris and Trump, 48% of Kennedy voters would again Trump, in contrast with 23% for Harris and 29% who “don’t know,” based on a New York Instances/Siena Faculty ballot carried out in late July. The identical ballot discovered Harris trailing Trump in a head-to-head contest however tied when Kennedy and three different third-party candidates had been figured into the race.
Democratic operatives, nonetheless, insisted Kennedy’s impact would find yourself being minimal.
“Here’s what RFK Jr.’s endorsement of Donald Trump would change: nothing,” the Democratic Nationwide Committee wrote in a memo Friday. “Once around 15%, RFK Jr.’s support has been in free fall ― now under 5% ― and he’s not positioned to deliver any electoral benefit to Trump.”
Democrats, in fact, didn’t all the time deal with Kennedy like he was going to have a marginal impact. The DNC arrange an opposition analysis and media unit to fight all third-party candidates however centered an enormous chunk of its firepower on Kennedy.
That outfit, and different Democratic initiatives, doubtless performed a behind-the-scenes function within the regular stream of embarrassing tales about Kennedy, from the worm he says ate a part of his mind to the story of him leaving a useless bear cub in Manhattan’s Central Park posed to make it appear to be a hit-and-run biking accident.
In the meantime, a separate Democratic tremendous PAC contested Kennedy’s poll entry in essential states throughout the nation, seizing on Kennedy’s claims that his fundamental residence is in New York somewhat than California. (Kennedy’s operating mate, Nicole Shanahan, additionally lives in California. And because of an obscure provision of the U.S. Structure, having two candidates from California would have made it tough for them to each run with out forfeiting California’s electoral votes.)
That effort besides Kennedy from the poll was on observe to be particularly fruitful in Pennsylvania, the state more than likely to supply the 270th electoral vote for both candidate to win the presidency.
Final Tuesday, Kennedy appeared late for a listening to about his poll eligibility within the Keystone State, eliciting a rebuke from the choose and making his disqualification doubtless. (On Monday, having suspended his marketing campaign, Kennedy withdrew his utility for poll entry.)
Although Trump had denigrated Kennedy as a “radical left” proponent of “ridiculous Open Borders and the Green New Scam,” the one-time environmental activist’s attraction to conservatives has lengthy been obvious. He railed in opposition to the “deep state” and the risks of the COVID-19 vaccine, opposed further U.S. help to Ukraine, and took conservative positions on border safety and gun management.
Joe Zepecki, a Democratic strategist in Wisconsin, argued Kennedy’s numbers had been resulting from collapse, with or with out a nudge from nationwide Democrats, shortly after Harris changed President Joe Biden because the Democratic nominee in late July. That’s as a result of a lot of Kennedy’s attraction was with the voters referred to as the “double haters.” These had been the disaffected, typically much less politically energetic voters fed up with each Trump and Biden, and desperately searching for another.
Harris’ alternative of Biden allowed lots of Kennedy’s extra liberal supporters ― younger individuals, Latinos and Black voters ― to return to the Democratic fold, based on Zepecki.
“Once that underlying premise wasn’t the choice, what the hell exactly was the rationale behind the Kennedy campaign? There was none,” Zepecki stated. “That’s why these numbers were going south.”
“The numbers we’re talking about are really, really small compared to the broader electorate, and it’s very hard to parse them.”
– Matt Bennett, govt vice chairman, Third Manner
Ian Russell, a former political director for the Democratic Congressional Marketing campaign Committee, had an analogous evaluation of the “double haters” coalition breaking up.
“I just don’t think him being on the ballot was going to have much of an effect one way or the other,” stated Russell, who advises federal candidates in battleground states and districts.
“There’s an argument to be made that it would be marginally better to have him on the ticket,” he added. “But I don’t think it’s as simple as taking the 4% in his camp and moving them to Trump’s share of the vote.”
However contemplating that the 2016 and 2020 elections had been determined by 80,000 and 44,000 votes, respectively, the Trump marketing campaign is taking any assist it might probably get. In a memo Friday, Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio wrote that the web good thing about Kennedy leaving the race would propel Trump to surpass Biden’s 2020 margins in states like Arizona and Georgia.
“This is good news for President Trump and his campaign ― plain and simple,” Fabrizio wrote.
With Kennedy now pulling primarily from anti-establishment conservatives somewhat than disaffected Democrats, would it not have been higher for Harris if Democrats had determined to not work fairly as arduous to destroy him?
“I don’t think so. We’ll never really know,” stated Matt Bennett, govt vice chairman of the reasonable Democratic group Third Manner, which beforehand teamed up with the liberal group MoveOn to fight a possible third-party candidate backed by No Labels. “The numbers we’re talking about are really, really small compared to the broader electorate, and it’s very hard to parse them.”
Even public polling confirmed Kennedy’s supporters had less-traditional voting patterns and spottier data of participation altogether. A couple of-third (34%) of these supporting him within the Instances/Siena ballot in late July stated that they had not voted within the 2020 presidential race.
Brody Lineaweaver, a university scholar in New York Metropolis who had been doing scholar organizing for the marketing campaign since April, instructed HuffPost he feels “betrayed” by Kennedy’s determination. Lineaweaver, a self-described progressive who received concerned with Kennedy’s marketing campaign to problem the two-party system, estimates that a big majority of Kennedy’s assist got here from anti-establishment voters like him and that these voters usually tend to keep dwelling now somewhat than vote for Trump.
A smaller class of “Kennedy loyalists” who’re extra hooked up to his anti-vaccine message “seems to be following Kennedy more into Trump kingdom,” Lineaweaver stated. For his half, Lineaweaver, who’s registered to vote in Colorado, the place he grew up and his dad and mom stay, plans to write down in left-wing creator Marianne Williamson or Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
Actually, some Democrats see Kennedy doubtlessly costing Trump votes within the middle of the political spectrum together with his conspiracy theories, anti-vaccine worldview and historical past of outlandish and distasteful conduct.
“The really important thing here is that Kennedy probably doesn’t bring a whole lot of voters with him, but by adding his voice to the Trump campaign … it really hurts Trump’s ability to attract those voters who are still in play,” he stated. “Bringing in Bobby Kennedy at this point really can’t help with ‘normie’ voters who are just hoping they can trust Trump not to be crazy.”
Different Democrats keep that their technique for attacking Kennedy might by no means be primarily based on the place he stood within the polls, given how a lot that modified day after day.
“We always thought that polling would fluctuate throughout, and our two goals were to educate voters and make sure that he was playing by the rules,” stated Matt Corridoni, a spokesperson for the Democratic Nationwide Committee’s anti-third occasion initiative. “We always knew this would be a close race, and we could not leave him unchecked.”
Kennedy’s endorsement of Trump speaks to each Kennedy’s and Trump’s weak spot as candidates, based on Corridoni.
“This is not a decision that either campaign is making from a place of strength,” Corridoni stated. “Kennedy waited until when he was at his absolute lowest and did really not have folks to bring with him, and Trump is so desperate right now for any type of bump that he’s willing to take on everything that comes with RFK Jr.”
