Texas Republicans are on their approach to enacting a brand new congressional district map forward of the 2026 midterms that creates 5 new GOP seats: On Wednesday evening, the Texas Home accepted a new set of district maps that strongly favor Republicans. The trouble got here on the insistence of an more and more unpopular President Donald Trump, who pressured Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, to name a particular session in an effort to get rid of Democratic seats in an effort to cease them from retaking the U.S. Home subsequent yr.
However Texas Democrats see potential flaws within the new Republican maps — ones they hope to make use of to reduce losses with a focused marketing campaign in a few of the new districts.
“The strategy behind this new map is based on two assumptions, both of which we think are incorrect,” mentioned Katherine Fischer, director of Texas Majority PAC, a brilliant PAC that works intently with the Texas Democratic Social gathering in an effort to flip the state blue by 2032.
These two assumptions are that Trump’s success in Texas in 2024 will mechanically translate down poll, and that Latino voters, who shifted closely in direction of Republicans final yr, will stay staunch GOP voters, in line with a report by Texas Majority PAC launched on Thursday.
Neither of these issues are a given, Texas Majority PAC argues. Assist for Trump, who has all the time been a reasonably distinctive political determine, doesn’t essentially translate to help for Republican candidates operating for U.S. Congress or state legislative seats.
In addition they level to earlier elections as proof. In 2024, Democratic Senate candidate Colin Allred outperformed Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris by 5.5% throughout the state and in every of the newly created districts. Whereas Allred didn’t attain a majority in any of these seats, and didn’t win his race, 2018 Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke did win majorities in 4 of the 5 new seats in a way more favorable setting. For the reason that 2026 midterms are prone to be a referendum on Trump’s presidency and his unpopular insurance policies, they’re anticipated to be nearer in composition to the 2018 midterms than the 2024 presidential cycle.
The Austin American-Statesman/Hearst Newspapers through Getty Photographs
Republicans hope that their inroads with Latino voters will mitigate potential compositional adjustments within the voters that happen throughout a midterm cycle. However that can also be a fairly large assumption. Trump’s present unpopularity is being closely pushed by drops amongst younger voters and Latinos. One-quarter of Latino voters who backed Trump in 2024 are upset in his presidency or remorse supporting him and 11% would vote for a Democrat in 2026, in line with a July ballot carried out by Equis Analysis. Those that are upset or remorse supporting Trump say they disagree along with his mass deportation insurance policies and really feel strongly that he’s finished nothing on his promise to deliver costs down.
None of these points are going to go away. Trump’s mass deportation will solely ramp up, as Republicans handed laws handing enforcement companies $170 billion in new funding. Inflation measurements and expectations proceed to run forward of projections as Trump’s tariffs enhance the price of items and companies.
“If this keeps up, Latino voters — and voters of all ages, races, genders, geographies — will move away from Trump and Republican congressmembers who supported this agenda,” Fischer mentioned.
Down-ballot Democrats additionally outperformed Harris in closely Latino districts throughout the state in 2024. Whereas Trump beat Harris in each the twenty eighth and thirty fourth congressional districts, each closely Latino, incumbent Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez each received reelection. Equally, Allred received majorities in each of these districts.
However that’s why Republicans focused Cuellar and Gonzalez’s districts to be redrawn. The brand new map places them each in districts that voted for Trump by 10%. Nonetheless, Democrats imagine that these two seats will stay aggressive and so they can maintain them if the political tide goes in opposition to Republicans.
“We believe based on available data that Latino support for Democrats will be better than last cycle, though it’s unlikely to reach 2018 levels of support,” Fischer mentioned. “Our projections give both Cuellar and Gonzalez both really good chances of holding their districts.”
The opposite newly drawn district that Democrats imagine they’ll contest, albeit as an uphill climb, is the brand new thirty fifth district. That district was beforehand rooted in Austin with a closely Democratic base and is presently held by Democratic Rep. Greg Casar, the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Whereas Casar is prone to run in a brand new district encompassing Austin, the brand new thirty fifth district, which voted for Trump by 10%, may very well be aggressive with the proper candidate and political setting.
“Democrats are starting at a significant disadvantage here, but it’s not impossible to win here if there’s a big blue wave year in ’26, if there’s a good candidate in that district, which we don’t know yet at this point, and if there’s improved Democratic support among Latino voters,” Fischer mentioned.
The opposite two districts reworked into GOP seats, nonetheless, are prone to stay out of attain. The ninth and thirty second districts, held by Democratic Reps. Al Inexperienced and Julie Johnson, respectively, now have electorates that voted for Trump by 20% in 2024.
Whereas untouched by the brand new map, Democrats imagine {that a} sturdy candidate might doubtlessly flip the South Texas seat held by GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz. The occasion is holding out hopes that Tejano music star Bobby Pulido, who lately retired from performing to give attention to politics, jumps into the race.
Rod Lamkey, Jr. through Related Press
It’s unlikely the efforts will absolutely offset the ability shift from restructuring the maps, although. In probably the most optimistic state of affairs for Democrats, Texas Majority PAC sees Republicans gaining someplace between 1-3 seats in 2026, somewhat than the 5 seats that Trump needs. If California efficiently counters Texas with its personal redistricting push to get rid of GOP-held seats, this entire episode might find yourself in a wash or favoring Democrats.
Texas Majority PAC hopes to attain this with an enormous coordinated marketing campaign to end up Democrats who didn’t vote in 2024 and to persuade those that did and pulled the lever for Trump to vote Democratic this time round.
The tremendous PAC shall be aided by an advisory opinion granted by the Federal Election Fee in 2024 that allows exterior teams to straight coordinate with candidates and political events on get-out-the-vote and different fieldwork. In 2024, Republicans capitalized on this opinion by straight coordinating with Elon Musk’s tremendous PAC and the right-wing group Turning Level USA to end up voters in key swing states. Texas Majority PAC will do a lot the identical factor, operating the sphere program for the complete Texas Democratic Social gathering and its candidates in 2026. They plan to double their outreach effort in 2024.
The group may even have interaction in candidate recruitment to make sure that a Democrat is operating in each congressional and state legislative district within the state. They’ll present these candidates with a number of companies — relying on state and federal marketing campaign finance legal guidelines — together with media reserving, marketing campaign planning and authorized companies.
If all the things goes Democrats’ method, Trump’s calls for for 5 seats in Texas to mitigate losses elsewhere might not materialize.
“It is not a foregone conclusion that Donald Trump will get all five seats that he demanded from Abbott — and the balance of the House will likely come down to a few seats,” Fischer mentioned. “Our goal here is If Texas can hold 2-3 seats and California redistricts, Democrats can still gain control of the House during the midterms.”
