It’s time for a actuality test on turkeys.
Grocery payments have risen greater over the previous few months, and lots of Individuals are worrying about the price of Thanksgiving. To assist, some retailers are providing promotions: Walmart, as an example, is promoting a “holiday meal basket” that serves 10 folks for round $40, which it says is its “most affordable holiday meal yet.”
President Donald Trump took credit score for the deal this week, posting on Reality Social: “Walmart just announced that Prices for a Thanksgiving Dinner is now down 25% since under Sleepy/Crooked Joe Biden, in 2024. AFFORDABILITY is a Republican Stronghold. Hopefully, Republicans will use this irrefutable fact!”
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In Walmart’s announcement, the corporate didn’t make any comparisons to Thanksgiving costs final 12 months, or point out inflation (or former President Biden). And Trump’s declare isn’t totally correct.
Walmart’s Thanksgiving meal was a bit pricier final 12 months at $7 per individual (serving eight folks), nevertheless it featured 29 objects, together with a turkey. The 2025 meal averages about $4 per individual, and whereas it feeds two further folks, it options solely 23 objects, together with a $0.97-per-pound turkey (final 12 months, the corporate provided turkeys at $0.88 per pound).
This comes as food-at-home costs elevated by 2.7% from September 2024 to September 2025, based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics Shopper Value Index. Since then, although, there’s been a authorities shutdown, and hundreds of thousands aren’t receiving their SNAP advantages. There’s additionally steady back-and-forth on tariffs.
“I can’t think of anybody I’ve talked to who has recently not lamented about the cost of food at the grocery store, and the impact of your dollar not going as far,” Jada Thompson, an affiliate professor of agricultural economics and agribusiness on the College of Arkansas, advised HuffPost.
And, searching for Thanksgiving “might be a little harder this year,” she stated.
About 40% of grocery buyers stated they’re involved concerning the costs of the meals they want for vacation meals (and presents), and almost half stated they plan to commit the biggest portion of their vacation budgets to meals this 12 months, based on a survey performed in late September by FMI/The Meals Business Affiliation.
Even so, 89% of the consumers surveyed stated they’re “at least somewhat excited” to have fun Thanksgiving this 12 months, and two-thirds plan to serve turkey with mashed potatoes, stuffing and a heat vegetable facet dish.
So what are you able to anticipate once you head to the grocery store forward of Thanksgiving? Right here’s what consultants say.
How a lot will turkeys price? (Extra)
Turkey is the centerpiece of most Thanksgivings, and it’ll seemingly be dearer this 12 months. The American Farm Bureau Federation estimated that wholesale turkey costs elevated about 40% as of early October, primarily as a result of avian influenza and different ailments affecting the trade.
Wholesale costs are a “good benchmark” for what you possibly can anticipate to pay on the grocery retailer, however turkey costs might differ from store to buy, Bernt Nelson, an economist at AFBF, advised HuffPost. Total, he notes, “Prices are up.”
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Larger wholesale costs are likely to counsel greater retail costs, Joseph Balagtas, an agricultural economics professor and director of the Middle for Meals Demand Evaluation and Sustainability at Purdue College, advised HuffPost. An evaluation by the middle estimates that retail turkey costs may common $2.05 per pound in November, 25% greater than in 2024. So, a 15-pound turkey may price round $31.
“But, there’s a big range around the average retail price for turkeys,” Balagtas stated. As an example, natural or pasture-raised turkey usually prices extra, and lots of retailers provide reductions as they compete for vacation meals buyers.
A lot of the turkey consumed within the U.S. is produced domestically, however the U.S. does import and export some turkey, Nelson stated, so tariffs seemingly aren’t considerably impacting really rising turkeys.
Nonetheless, Thompson stated tariffs may have “indirect impacts.” For instance, farmers could also be seeing will increase in the price of provides, packaging and gasoline needed to supply turkeys.
What about sides, desserts and different staples? (Possible extra)
With grocery costs greater than final 12 months, it’s seemingly that most of the meals you’ll buy for Thanksgiving dinner can be dearer, too.
For instance, sugar and sweets costs elevated 6.7% from September 2024 to September 2025 (which is the newest information out there), based on the BLS. Balagtas stated this is because of climate occasions in cocoa-growing areas and exacerbated by tariffs or tariff uncertainty.
Bakery merchandise, together with bread, truffles and cookies, elevated 2.7%, and contemporary fruit and veggies are 1.2% greater general, with potatoes 3.7% dearer, based on the BLS.
Inexperienced beans and tomatoes, lots of that are imported from Mexico, can even seemingly be dearer this Thanksgiving, Lance Jungmeyer, president of the Contemporary Produce Affiliation of the Americas, advised HuffPost.
However some meals are literally cheaper. Frozen vegetable costs are 0.7% decrease this 12 months. Egg costs are 1.3% decrease, and fat and oils are 1.7% cheaper.
Ideas for decreasing your Thanksgiving prices
Regardless of the rising costs, you possibly can nonetheless make an economical vacation meal, Thompson stated. “This is where we look for the deals and try not to overproduce.”
As Thanksgiving approaches, retailers will seemingly provide promotions on turkeys and different meal staples, Nelson stated.
Together with Walmart, Aldi is providing a Thanksgiving bundle serving 10 for $40. Goal is promoting a vacation meal for 4 for about $20.
Just a few different methods to save cash in your Thanksgiving meal embody:
- Selecting a smaller turkey to cut back the general price.
- Making smaller parts (or fewer dishes general) that require fewer components.
- Choosing frozen fruit and veggies, which can be a bit cheaper.
- Evaluating costs: Retailer manufacturers could also be cheaper than title manufacturers.
- In search of reductions on turkeys and different vacation meals, or looking out on-line for low cost codes and coupons.
- Purchasing early to get the very best offers.
- Asking visitors to convey a dish to unfold out the general meal price.
Finally, though turkeys and different objects are pricier this 12 months, “that doesn’t mean we can’t have festivities,” Thompson stated. “That means we will probably have to try to adjust those festivities for a tighter budget this year.”
