China views social media networks as tools for cyberwarfare and America does not have the defenses to fight off China in the long term, according to experts on China and cybersecurity. 

Targets of Beijing’s sophisticated cyberwarfare techniques include financial, energy and transportation networks, as well as national and military decision-makers, according to People’s Liberation Army writings analyzed by Dean Cheng, a Heritage Foundation scholar of Chinese military capabilities.

Mr. Cheng and Winnona DeSombre, a cyber statecraft expert at the Atlantic Council, sounded the alarm about China’s cyberwarfare capabilities in testimony to the U.S.-China and Economic Security Review Commission.

Mr. Cheng said China’s work in what it terms the ‘three warfares’ of psychological warfare, public opinion warfare, and legal warfare poses a threat in the cyber domain. China’s practice of integrated network and electronic warfare involves more than computers and can extend into civilian information systems and seek to wreak havoc even in peacetime. 

“It is not simply zeroes and ones, it is not simply computers, it is the human element of interpreting what is on the screen,” Mr. Cheng said. “Do you believe the emails on your screen? Do you believe that your email went to the right place, and conversely that the tweet, the Instagram, the TikTok actually is a reflection of reality?” 

China’s ability to blur the lines between reality and propaganda is not the only challenge America is facing in cyberspace. 

“Based on industry observations, the U.S. does not currently have adequate cyber defenses, personnel, supply chain security, or international, technical, and standards leadership to rival China long-term in cyberspace,” Ms. DeSombre told the commission. “On top of this, given how secretive cyber is as a domain, China’s capabilities likely exceed the findings that I’ve compiled here.

Ms. DeSombre, a former security engineer at Google, said while China and the U.S. both suffer from a personnel shortage, China’s military-civil fusion policies forcing cooperation with academic and corporate institutions will enable it to overcome such issues in the short term.

She said America is not as well-equipped, particularly because of clearance backlogs and policies discouraging talented professionals from entering government service. 

The warnings from the China experts are intended to inform congressional action on national security and economic policy. The U.S. China and Economic Security Review Commission was created by Congress in 2000 and it publishes annual reports featuring its recommendations. Mr. Cheng and Ms. DeSombre provided testimony to commissioners selected by the leadership of the House and Senate. 

During the hearing on Thursday, the commission also received testimony from experts who warned about China’s improving cyberespionage capabilities. Mandiant Threat Intelligence senior manager Kelli Vanderlee said her cybersecurity firm believes China’s technical tradecraft has steadily evolved since 2016 to become stealthier and more agile. 

“In 2020 and 2021, we believe Chinese cyber espionage activity has demonstrated a higher tolerance for risk and is less constrained by norms or diplomatic pressures,” Ms. Vanderlee said in written testimony. 

Part of the reason why diplomatic pressure does not work perfectly to chasten China is because of America’s failure to follow through with punishment after naming and shaming the communist country for bad actions, according to Ms. DeSombre. 

“China no longer cares about whether or not it’s being named and shamed if there’s no imposition of costs afterward,” Ms. DeSombre told the commission. “And the current sanction environment, especially when we’re sanctioning individual PLA officers and the like, is not nearly as effective as we’d like it to be.”

Ms. DeSombre suggested America collaborate more with its allies on developing international standards in support of a free and open internet to work to advance American values in the information domain. 

Beijing’s expanding military poses a “significant threat” to the United States and the Pentagon is not ready for a conflict with China, according to a new report by the Government Accountability Office.

“Today, China has transformed what was an obsolete military into one that can challenge the U.S. military across the spectrum of conventional and unconventional capabilities,” the GAO said in a report made public this week.

Key weaknesses identified by the congressional watchdog agency include military readiness shortfalls, force mobility problems and supply chain issues needed for new F-35 warplanes.

“Potential adversaries, including China, now contest all domains,” the GAO survey found. “From fiscal years 2017 through 2019, U.S. military readiness increased in the ground domain and declined in the sea domain, while readiness ratings in the space, air and cyber domains were mixed.”

Other problems identified by GAO include vulnerabilities in weapons systems that can be exploited by Chinese cyberattacks, Navy crew fatigue and attack submarine operating problems.

The Defense Department “has struggled to ensure its weapon systems can withstand cyberattacks and should take steps to incorporate cybersecurity requirements into contracts,” the report said.

China’s growing arsenal of space weapons — missiles, robot satellites, lasers and cyber capabilities — also could cripple U.S. military operations in a future conflict.

“China is developing capabilities that threaten [the Defense Department’s] satellite communications systems,” the report said, adding that Beijing is building arms for large-scale anti-satellite strikes using novel physical, cyber and electronic warfare means.

The Pentagon has analyzed ways to replace existing vulnerable space systems but “concluded that it needs more information to select the next satellite communications architecture,” the report said.

A sailor shortage

The GAO said the Navy suffers from a shortage of manpower.

“Crew shortfalls contribute to sailor fatigue and safety issues, including two fatal Navy ship collisions in the Pacific Ocean in 2017,” the report said. “With Navy ships under-crewed by 15% on average in 2020, the Navy will be challenged to fully crew the fleet needed to counter advanced adversaries.”

The Navy also was faulted for not having robust capabilities for repairing ships during wartime. The service is in the early stages of figuring out how to repair ships damaged in a major conflict.

“Without designated leadership, the Navy may be hindered in its efforts to address sustainment challenges,” the GAO said.

Any conflict with China would involve large-scale attacks on Navy ships from the People’s Liberation Army’s large arsenal of anti-ship missiles.

China has deployed several types of ballistic missiles capable of targeting moving ships at sea, including DF-26 missiles that the GAO says can reach target ships 932 miles from Chinese coasts.

The Navy’s asymmetric warfare advantage of having a powerful attack submarine fleet also has been hampered by readiness issues. The report said the Navy lost over 10,000 operating days for attack submarines from 2008 through 2018. During the delays “these key assets provided no operational capability,” the GAO said.

The Chinese military is also working on advanced artificial intelligence systems for warfare.

“China views artificial intelligence (AI) as critical to its future military and industrial power and is pursuing plans to be the global leader in AI by 2030,” the report.

Challenges for China 

Despite the findings, the report noted that China is also facing challenges, including its own military weaknesses.

The Defense Intelligence Agency has stated that China, while a large developing nation, “still faces multiple complex security challenges including several regional territorial disputes,” the report said.  

China’s decades-long military buildup of both conventional and nuclear forces has not achieved Beijing’s goal of creating a world-class armed forces by 2049. According to the report, the Pentagon “risks not achieving the new strategy’s goals because it has not taken key actions — such as identifying processes and procedures to integrate [electromagnetic spectrum] operations across the department, reforming governance structures, and clearly assigning leadership for strategy implementation.”

Regarding electronic warfare that is likely to be a major feature of a potential U.S.-China war, the GAO said the Pentagon needs better oversight over electronic warfare operations to ensure the superiority of China and control the battlefield.

Electronic warfare involves offensive and defensive measures to disrupt enemy weapons and communications and protect U.S. systems.

GAO said in an earlier report that despite strategy reports produced in 2013, 2017 and 2020, the Pentagon has failed to assign senior leaders with authority and resources to implement effective strategies.

The report concluded that China’s growing economic, diplomatic, military and technological power and a willingness to employ those powers pose a significant long-term threat.

The Pentagon needs to better prepare for competition and combat with China by increasing combat capabilities and enhancing conventional deterrence of a conflict.

“Going forward, key policy considerations include ensuring that the Defense Department is prepared to maintain supply chains, gather intelligence, and responsibly leverage emerging space, cyber, and AI technologies in response to potential threats,” the report said.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken launched a scathing attack Thursday on what he said were Russian preparations for a possibly imminent invasion of Ukraine, saying the Biden administration has issued a blitz of warnings in recent weeks about potential Russian provocations as a way to head off war.

Hours after President Biden said it was “his sense” that a Russian military incursion will come in the next few days, Mr. Blinken at a U.N. Security Council meeting called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to renounce unequivocally any military action against its neighbor and outlined what he said was a Russian blueprint to “manufacture a crisis” that would justify a military move, including disinformation and false accusations of actions by Kyiv.

The comments were some of the bluntest remarks to date from Mr. Blinken, even as he insisted at the end of his address that the administration still hoped for a diplomatic resolution to the crisis.

“This is a moment of peril for the lives and safety of millions of people, as well as for the foundation of the United Nations Charter and the rules-based international order that preserves stability worldwide,” Mr. Blinken said. “Our information indicates clearly that [Russian] forces including ground troops, aircraft ships are preparing to launch an attack against Ukraine in the coming days.”

Mr. Blinken warned that Russia had multiple ways to fabricate an excuse for military action, including “the invented discovery of the mass grave, a staged drone strike against civilians, or a fake — even a real — attack using chemical weapons.”

In Moscow, the Putin government released a lengthy written response to U.S. and NATO proposals to end the crisis, saying the Western response effectively ignored Russia‘s national security red lines. 

The U.S. and its allies have rejected the Kremlin’s demands to bar Ukraine permanently from NATO and to pull back troops and weaponry broadly along Russia‘s western borders.

The document defends Russia‘s recent massive build-up of troops on Ukraine‘s border.

“Ultimate demands to withdraw troops from certain areas on Russian territory, accompanied by threats of tougher sanctions, are unacceptable and undermine the prospects for reaching real agreements,” the 11-page response read in part.

“In the absence of the readiness of the American side to agree on firm, legally binding guarantees to ensure our security from the United States and its allies, Russia will be forced to respond, including through the implementation of military-technical measures.”

Mr. Blinken in his U.N. remarks said he had written a letter to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov asking for another face-to-face meeting in Europe next week. He also addressed complaints in Russia and elsewhere that Washington was hyping the threat of war and making a diplomatic solution harder.

“I am mindful that some have called into question our information, recalling previous instances where intelligence ultimately did not bear out,” the secretary of state said. “But let me be clear: I am here today, not to start a war, but to prevent one.”

“The information I’ve presented here is validated by what we’ve seen unfolding in plain sight before our eyes for months,” he added. “And remember that while Russia has repeatedly derided our warnings and alarms as melodrama and nonsense, they have been steadily amassing more than 150,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders, as well as the capabilities to conduct a massive military assault.”

“If Russia doesn’t invade Ukraine, then we will be relieved that Russia changed course and proved our predictions wrong. …  And we will gladly accept any criticism that anyone directs at us.”

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Saudi Arabia is signaling it isn’t willing to pump more oil and won’t push for changes to an agreement with Russia and other producers that has kept a lid on oil production levels.

This has Washington concerned as gasoline prices rise and tensions with Russia over Ukraine fuel market uncertainty.

The Biden administration dispatched Brett McGurk, the National Security Council’s Middle East coordinator, and the State Department’s energy envoy, Amos Hochstein, to Riyadh on Wednesday to talk about a range of issues – chief among them the ongoing war in Yemen and global energy supplies.

Asked by reporters in Washington whether the U.S. officials were also urging Saudi Arabia to pump more crude to alleviate high oil prices, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said she did not have more details on the meeting.

A White House official said the two U.S. officials had not asked the Saudis to increase oil production at their meetings in Riyadh. The person insisted on anonymity to discuss the meetings and said the conversation involved regional issues and energy security impacts on the global economy.

Two Saudi officials told The Associated Press the Saudi energy minister informed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, of the kingdom’s commitment to the group’s current roadmap of cautious monthly increases. They spoke anonymously because they were not authorized to brief journalists.

King Salman also said as much in a call last week with President Joe Biden. According to a Saudi readout of the call, the king highlighted the “the importance of maintaining the agreement” that is in place between OPEC, the oil cartel led by Saudi, and Russia.

The Saudi and Russian-led alliance, known as OPEC+, calls for gradual increases to oil production as the world continues to emerge from the pandemic, but geopolitical events have been rapidly evolving and driving market volatility.

Higher prices at the pump pose a threat to Democrats at the polls in upcoming midterm elections. Biden has warned that gas prices could rise even higher if Russian President Vladimir Putin invades Ukraine.

Benchmark crude is trading at around $95 a barrel, its highest level in eight years. AAA says the current U.S. national average for a gallon of regular gasoline costs around $3.50 – a 40% increase from its average of $2.50 at this time last year.

During a CNN forum in October, Biden said prices were rising because “of the supply being withheld by OPEC.” He said that while there’s a lot of negotiation going on about the cost of gas, “there’s a lot of Middle Eastern folks who want to talk to me.”

“I’m not sure I’m going to talk to them. But the point is, it’s about gas production,” he added.

His remarks were widely interpreted as a swipe at Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who oversees the kingdom’s major policy decisions and day-to-day affairs.

Saudi Arabia has the ability to produce some 12 million barrels a day, but its output is around 10 million barrels a day in line with the OPEC+ curbs made during the coronavirus pandemic.

The Biden administration has emphasized U.S. strategic interests with Saudi Arabia, a departure from the Trump administration’s personal relationship with the crown prince that was cultivated by advisor Jared Kushner.

Early on in his presidency, Biden reversed a terrorism designation of Yemen’s Houthi rebels that a Saudi-led coalition is battling – a decision he’s now being lobbied to reconsider. He also declassified an intelligence report that concluded Prince Mohammed likely approved the operation that killed Saudi writer Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul in 2018.

Throughout his presidency, Biden has circumvented speaking directly with the crown prince, choosing instead to hold calls with King Salman, the prince’s 86-year-old father.

The OPEC+ group has consistently rebuffed pressure from Biden to pump significantly more oil, deciding instead to stick with cautious monthly increases. The higher oil prices are a boon to the economies of both Saudi Arabia and Russia as Moscow faces possible Western sanctions over Ukraine.

The Wall Street Journal reported that at an energy forum in Riyadh on Wednesday, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman rejected calls to pump more oil and said renegotiating quotas among OPEC members risked stoking more volatility in oil markets. The Intercept first reported that Saudi Arabia had rejected a Biden plea to increase oil production.

At the energy forum in Riyadh, Hochstein, the State Department’s energy envoy, stressed “energy security cannot be taken for granted.”

“We have seen a rapid rise in price and today having a significant amount of risk, of geopolitical risk, priced into our markets,” he said at a livestreamed International Energy Forum symposium. High oil prices and high inflation are cyclical and affect each other, he added.

Oil producers, he said, need to “make sure that the supply is there to meet the demand” so that prices do not continue to strain the U.S. economy and wider economic recovery.

Speaking at the same energy forum, the head of the International Energy Agency called on OPEC+ producers to close what he said is a 1 million barrel-per-day gap between their stated targets and actual output. The IEA says Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could help stabilize prices if they pumped more oil.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol called on OPEC+ producers to “provide more volume to the markets” to reduce price volatility that is burdening households.

___

Al-Shihri reported from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Associated Press writer Joshua Boak in Washington contributed to this report.

Democratic Chairman Sen. Robert Menendez blasted Republicans on the Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday for putting forward a “partisan Russia sanctions” proposal, just minutes after President Biden praised lawmakers for their unity in deterring Moscow from invading Ukraine.

After weeks of stalled negotiations on Mr. Menendez’s “mother-of-all sanctions” package aimed at threatening Russia with sanctions if it invades, Senate Republicans on Tuesday put forward a counter-proposal that would immediately stop construction on Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline and slap instant penalties on Russian banks and officials.

The proposal was met with staunch opposition from Democrats. 

“It’s a shame that Senate Republicans have decided to choose partisan posturing instead of working to reach consensus on a comprehensive bipartisan proposal that would demonstrate a united front to deter [Russian President Vladimir] Putin from re-invading Ukraine,” Mr. Menendez said in a statement Tuesday. “A partisan victory is not worth a message of division from Washington, which only benefits Putin.”

Mr. Menendez of New Jersey signaled the latest breakdown in talks just minutes after Mr. Biden’s televised address, in which the president warned that a Russian invasion “is still very much a possibility,” while praising lawmakers’ bipartisan resolve in the face of the Kremlin’s aggression.

“This is a cause that unites Republicans and Democrats,” Mr. Biden said in his address. “And I want to thank the leaders and members of both parties, who have forcefully spoken out in defense of our most basic, most bipartisan, most American principals.”

Negotiations in Congress have largely broken down over the timing of when sanctions would take place. Republicans insist that Russia should face severe consequences before an invasion, while Democrats’ original proposal was to guarantee a bevy of sanctions after an attack.

On Tuesday, Republicans proposed the immediate stoppage of construction on Russia’s Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline into Germany, and mandatory sanctions on the pipeline if Russia should invade.

Mr. Biden waived Trump-era sanctions on the pipeline last summer, putting Democrats in an awkward spot as they scramble to remain tough on Russia without embarrassing the president.

The Republican proposal also would impose sanctions on Russian banks and members of Mr. Putin’s inner circle before a further Russian incursion into Ukraine, and would provide additional military aid to Ukraine.

The bill would also allow certain committee leaders in Congress to force a determination from Mr. Biden on whether Russian aggression against Ukraine “fulfills conditions to trigger sanctions.”

Several key Republicans in the House, including the top Republicans on the House Foreign Affairs and Armed Services Committees, rallied behind the proposal, deemed the Never Yielding Europe’s Territory (NYET) Act.

“Rather than simply restating authorities the president already has, the NYET Act takes immediate action to permanently stop Nord Stream 2, sends a powerful deterrent message, imposes heavy economic and military costs on Russia, strengthens U.S. allies and partners, and supports Ukraine via new authorities, funds, and tools,” said Sen. James E. Risch of Idaho, the ranking Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee.

But Mr. Menendez is not embracing the proposal, and the breakdown in talks could mean that Congress will come up empty-handed as Russia remains on the brink of war.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said last week that Mr. Biden has all the authority needed to immediately pass sanctions to deter the Kremlin.

“I’m not sure how relevant it is in the short term, because the sanctions that the administration would impose, they can already do without a bill,” said Sen. Marco Rubio, Florida Republican.

Still, both Mr. Risch and Mr. Menendez say a bill would be an important display of unity from Congress.

“That is why I have worked for weeks to convince Republicans to join us in legislating something that can deter Putin, and why I will continue pushing for my Republican colleagues to reconsider this path before it’s too late for the people of Ukraine,” Sen. Menendez said. “There is still hope for a diplomatic breakthrough, and there is still time to reach a bipartisan agreement so the U.S. Congress can help impose the swiftest and harshest of responses for any unprovoked, unjustified actions by Russia.”